Originally published 1/22/2025. Last revised 1/22/2025.
Last updated
This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. I am not a licensed financial advisor, and the opinions and information presented here are based on my personal knowledge and research at the time of writing. Some content within is speculative or set in a future scenario. While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy, some information may be incorrect or subject to change. Readers should independently verify all data and consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. I also hold positions in certain mentioned securities (e.g., LUNR, RKLB).
This document definitely needs this disclaimer due to the sheer amount of information in here and the opinionated piece towards the end.
This is a little bit of a different piece than I normally put out; This update will be characterized more as an "informational opinion" piece, as I will provide factual background but then eventually flow into my personal thoughts on the potential implications of the new current administration on both LUNR and the space sector as a whole.
The Trump/Vance administration was officially sworn into office yesterday morning, on January 20th, 2025, in Washington, D.C. During his inaugural speech, President Trump stated:
"... And we will pursue our manifest destiny into the stars, launching American astronauts to plant the stars and stripes on the planet Mars."
For LUNR, and the space sector as a whole, this could have massive implications; As we all know, or those of us who have been following the United States' space endeavors over the last decade or so, President Trump has taken a very big liking to space as a whole, going as far as to establish a brand new branch of government during his first term, The United States Space Force (USSF), among many other space related presidential activities.
The newest branch of government, The United States Space Force (USSF), was established on Dec. 20, 2019, with bi-partisan support, when the National Defense Authorization Act was signed into law. Recognizing the urgent need for a dedicated space defense entity, lawmakers moved on this Act in unison with the ultimate goal "to protect and defend American interests and to ensure our forces, our allies, and the world never experience a day without space. They serve across the globe, working 24/7 to design, acquire, field, test, operate, and defend the critical space systems the nation, and the world, rely upon." (via )
In relation to the Moon and Mars, the USSF helps secure both space, digital, and ground assets, such as satellites, ground stations, and vital communication networks needed for operation for tasks such as telemetry, command, and control of landers and shuttles. This helps unburden the various commercial and government agencies, as they focus on operating their specific space-related mission, overseeing the technology involved, and ensuring the safety of those participating and the equipment at hand, with security and safety from foreign threats.
"It" (SPD-1) "marks a first step in returning American astronauts to the Moon for the first time since 1972, for long-term exploration and use. This time, we will not only plant our flag and leave our footprints — we will establish a foundation for an eventual mission to Mars, and perhaps someday, to many worlds beyond."
By reestablishing the National Space Council and SPD-1, the administration effectively paved the way for the Artemis Campaign, and subsequently, the groundwork for commercial space missions such as the mostly successful IM-1 mission that took place last February spearheaded by LUNR themselves. This mission was the first commercial mission ever to land on the Moon and officially marked the United States' return to the lunar surface for the first time since 1972 - a whopping 52 years ago. Without SPD-1 and the National Space Council, LUNR as we know it today would simply not exist.
NASA over the years, since Trump was first sworn into office in 2017, has also massively increased spending on Space-related activities, as seen in this infographic below that outlines the total budget requests from 2016 to 2025.
The data in the infographic highlights a significant upward trend in funding, particularly starting in 2020, with the budget surging from $21 billion to over $27 billion in 2024. It is important to note that with the way that the government budget operates regarding NASA, that budgets are decided on the Spring before the fiscal year starts (for example, the largest leap in the budget in 2021 was passed by congress, while the Trump administration was in office, on December 21, 2020 and was signed into law days later by President Trump on December 27, 2020.) This is an exemplary example of President Trump's commitment to space-related activities and exploration.
Major Achievements and cost drivers of NASA during the first year of increased spending in 2020 include, but are not limited to:
Launch of the Perseverance rover and Ingenuity helicopter to Mars to explore the Jezero Crater in search of ancient microbial life, sample collection, climate, geology, and habitability studies, and key technological demonstrations for preparation of further robotic and eventual human exploration.
Achieved the first landing of a dedicated sample-collection spacecraft on an asteroid, successfully retrieving and securing material, approx. 250 grams of rocks and space dust, from the asteroid Bennu.
Launch of the Demo-2 mission, in partnership with SpaceX. This mission restored the United States' capability to send astronauts to the International Space Station from American soil. Prior to this mission, the last time Americans had been to the ISS was in July 2011, on Space Shuttle Atlantis, which marked the final flight of NASA's in-house space shuttle program.
Major achievements and cost drivers of Nasa during the second year of increased spending in 2021 include, but are not limited to:
Landing and operation of the Perseverance rover and Ingenuity helicopter on Mars to explore the Jezero Crater in search of ancient microbial life, sample collection, climate, geology, and habitability studies, and key technological demonstrations for preparation of further robotic and eventual human exploration. This marked the first powered flight (by the Ingenuity helicopter) from Mankind on another planet.
Launch of the James Webb Telescope, a space telescope designed to conduct infrared astronomy to study our solar system and universe beyond, on a Ariane 5 rocket.
Conducted the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), a mission to test a method of deflecting potentially threatening asteroids by crashing a spacecraft into it as a kinetic impactor. DART was the first time in history that a celestial object was intentionally and successfully moved by humans to change its orbit.
The surge in funding since President Trump took office, which continued during the later years of the last administration, has fueled a large range of NASA space-related activities. The upward trend in budgeting showcases NASA's drive to push technological boundaries, foster commercial partnerships, and lay the foundation for future robotic and human exploration on the Moon, Mars, and beyond.
Since 2017, the year that the Artemis Campaign was established via SPD-1, budgeting and spending of NASA has risen as the ongoing technological development of crucial systems, such as the Space Launch System (SLS), Orion spacecraft, and support/communication infrastructure, continue. Today, the Artemis Campaign remains an ambitious goal, one it plans to accomplish in partnership with commercial entities at its side to return humans to the moon which will pave the way for Mars.
As the Trump Administration takes office, so does new leadership at the government-ran space agency, NASA.
Nelson held this position as administrator of NASA for 4 years, since the Biden Administration took office, putting forth an agenda of sending Man back to the stars.
Petro's experience reads:
Janet Petro had been the 11th director of NASA’s John F. Kennedy Space Center in Florida, where she managed the Kennedy team of civil service and contractor employees, determining and implementing center policy and managing and executing Kennedy missions and agency program responsibilities. Previously, she served as acting director and Kennedy’s deputy director.
During her tenure as deputy director, Petro helped Kennedy transition into a multi-user spaceport, leading cross-agency initiatives with the Federal Aviation Administration and U.S. Air Force to streamline government processes and support commercial space operations to increase government efficiency and limit redundancy. She served a 12-month appointment at NASA Headquarters in Washington, D.C. as the deputy associate administrator and acting director for the Office of Evaluation.
From 2017 through January 2020, she served as the Program Executive leading the agency-wide initiative for a phased implementation to restructure all mission enabling functions to ensure efficient and effective support of NASA’s missions. Her assignment to the Mission Support Future Architecture Program (MAP) concluded in January 2020.
Prior to joining NASA, Petro served in various management positions for Science Applications International Corp. (SAIC) and McDonnell Douglas Aerospace Corp. At SAIC, Petro held a number of management positions within the corporation’s operations. She interfaced with NASA, the U.S. Air Force, the U.S. Navy, and commercial entities on numerous aerospace and military programs.
Jared Isaacson, President Trump's new nominee that is currently awaiting Senate confirmation, is expected to take over following the waiting process.
"Isaacman, 41, is the CEO of Shift4 Payments, which he founded in 1999 at the age of 16. An experienced jet pilot, Isaacman also founded and ran a defense contractor company, called Draken International, that aided training for the Air Force in the 2010s.
In recent years, however, Isaacman has garnered international attention for his focus on space.
Isaacman speaks at a news conference at Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida, on August 19 ahead of Polaris Dawn, a groundbreaking private human spaceflight mission for which he served as commander. Joe Skipper/Reuters
Unlike the Moon, Mars is a time-limited opportunity due to its Orbital Window. The Mars Orbital Window can be defined as "a period of time when Earth and Mars are in positions that allow a spacecraft to travel to Mars in about 7 to 9 months. During this time, the two planets are closest together, which means that the trip to Mars takes the least amount of energy and time." This window which allows for the most efficient trip to Mars only opens around once every 26 months, with the next optimal Orbital Windows appearing:
November to December 2026
December to January 2028-2029
This, in relation, creates a definitive timeline for which the technology and equipment must be developed and ready for launch and the astronauts be trained (or robotics be developed and tested) and ready for launch in order to ensure a successful launch, flight, and landing on Mars. This creates a huge strain on the economics of preparing such missions, as well as the timely development of technology as even a slight delay means setting back the Mars program by multiple years. While under this new administration, economics might not be such an issue due to President Trump's stance regarding space (and Mars) exploration, especially considering the factors of commercial entities in play now rather than just a stand-alone federal government goal, all other factors remain true.
The Moon and Mars missions currently coexist within the Artemis Campaign. Currently, with the way that NASA is structuring their missions and overarching desires over the foreseeable future, the ultimate goal of agency is to return mankind to the Moon first and then venture onto Mars.
This first infographics seen below explains why Mars is on NASA's timeline for exploration.
This directly indicates that NASA has starting mission planning, development, and/or preparation for the next 2 Intuitive Machines' missions following the launch of IM-2, currently slated NET Late February 2025.
It is important to note that SpaceX's offerings, as they sit right now in terms of contracts being filled, lie mostly in the launch and transport scene, as they mostly provide launch vehicles, but are starting to dabble in other parts of the industry, such as landers and satellites (As seen from their successful global Star Link Wi-Fi systems).
With SpaceX currently receiving one of the largest amounts of funding, percentage-wise, compared against other top companies that receive funding from NASA, and offering products in the form of rockets and spacecraft that could directly help send the U.S. to Mars, they're poised to become one of the leaders in space exploration as we know it.
Overall market sentiment during President Trump's first day in officer was relatively good, as the major indexes and cryptocurrencies, which are poised to possibly become a crucial part of the economy under the new President, all saw movement in the positive today after a rocky last couple of weeks:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: +1.24%
S&P 500: +.88%
Nasdaq: +.64%
Bitcoin: +3.49% (as of the last 24 hours at the time of writing, 2245 PST)
Ethereum: +1.8% (as of the last 24 hours at the time of writing, 2245 PST)
The market seemed to respond well to President Trump's first full day in office as he did and didn't sign a plethora of executive orders directly impacting the American market, such as but not limited to:
The absence of tariffs from day 1 of his term, with the potential to currently tariff Mexico and Canada 25% on imports in the future
Notable movement in the space sector is as follows for the top 10 movers (arranged by highest to lowest percentage move):
$RDW - Redwire: +$7.64 / +51.80%
$RKLB - Rocket Lab: +$7.28 / +30.33%
$MNTS - Momentus: +$1.64 / +24.70%
$LUNR - Intuitive Machines: +$4.36 / +23.55%
$PL - Planet Labs: +$0.85 / +22.25%
$SIDU - Sidus Space: +$0.57 / +22.01%
$ASTS - AST Spacemobile: +$2.32 / +11.16%
$TSAT - Telesat: +$1.20 / + 7.38%
$SPCE - Virgin Galactic: +$0.17 / +3.30%
$SATS - Echostar: +$0.74 / +2.74%
The top 4 on this list appear to be primed for a move upwards over the course of President Trump's term as they're all directly involved in the infrastructure or transportation services needed to fuel the United States' expansion onto both the Moon and Mars.
Now this is where I get more into the opinionated section, as I tried heavily to keep everything seen above more to the factual side of things. These opinions are highly influenced by my own holdings.
As you all know, if you follow me either through AfterHour, X, or just read my updates on here, you know where I'm at with my investments (in general): I'm a long holder. I currently hold 150 shares of $LUNR and just this morning started my journey into $RKLB, picking up 27 shares before the opening bell at an average price of $25.54. I'm long on both of these positions and will only continue to grow the share count over time, only selling to DCA back in for greater amounts of shares at a better cost basis.
On top of this, IM-2 is set to launch within the next month and a half, per current estimates, with IM-3 and IM-4 in the pipeline, as seen and explained in sections above, with those partially covering NASA's contracts awarded (which are only growing LUNR's backlog, giving them a brighter tomorrow) as LUNR is built out to be a commercial entity, providing full in-house services and developed/owned/operated products to other commercial and government entities alike.
While LUNR may be set towards the moon for now, heavily reliant on NASA contracts pointing them towards there, there is good reason for this: NASA has awarded potentially Billions (to be given over the course of a couple years) to LUNR in exchange for what they can offer in the pursuit of pushing the Artemis Campaign and other Space interests forward, to include the CLPS and NSN, which they are currently set to provide infrastructure for in space to upgrade current communications and command, tracking, and telemetry involved with missions of all types, on top of the landers currently being provided. These contracts show a great likelihood of investment and collaboration between the two entities going forward, with current contracts to continue for the duration of the Trump Administration, being announced complete in 2029 (with a potential for extension for a couple more years).
Should NASA pivot towards a more Mars-centered approach, and slow their pace to the Moon (effectively giving the Moon to other countries who also have rapidly advancing space programs via government and/or commercial entities), I truly believe that LUNR will also pivot as they're tried and true within the industry and showcase commitment to quality and progression. The offerings can well be expanded and adjusted from their current goals to fit the needs of the buyer, as is the ultimate goal of any well-rounded planned out commercial entity, especially one that touts a bespoke approach to all things Space.
With the new Administration and President Trump taking over however, and his personal commitment in his past term towards Space & the Moon, I do believe that the Moon won't be slow-rolled, but only accelerated from here, as a Moon-centric Mars approach makes sense in all directions, from a security, infrastructure, political, economic, and technological point of view, to name a few.
LUNR is a young company all things considered, being founded just 12 years ago and having gone public less than 2 years ago. At their current rate of expansion, in terms of employee count, contract acquisition, facilities, and software & data/equipment development, there's truly no telling where this company and stock could go in the next 2 or 12 years.
Along with the establishment of the U.S. Space Force, President Trump also reestablished the National Space Council, a council dedicated to guiding and coordinating involvement of our national government in American-related activities in space. This council plays a vital role to LUNR, particularly their involvement in the Artemis Campaign, as they provide direct oversight via the passing of the 2017 Space Policy Directive-1 (SPD-1), signed by President Trump on December 11, 2017. This policy directly calls for the NASA Administrator to "lead an innovative and sustainable program of exploration with commercial and international partners to enable human expansion across the solar system and to bring back to Earth new knowledge and opportunities." (via ). On the day of signing of SPD-1, President Trump remarked:
For more about the Artemis Campaign, see for information about how it relates to LUNR or for general information.
The prior administrator of NASA, the highest position within the agency, that is responsible for directing the agency, including budget and programs, Bill Nelson, officially left the space agency on January 20, 2025. During his departure, he left behind a letter to his successor ( ) that read:
Unfortunately, the Trump Administration has given the public some twists revolving around the replacement of Nelson; Originally, when President Trump was sworn in on the 20th, NASA updated its website (and it still shows this as of the time of writing this) to list on the front page of NASA Leadership.
On the day of President Trump's swearing in, President Trump decided to go in a different direction and instead appoint Kennedy Space Center Director to temporarily take charge instead of Free as acting Administrator per a press release from the White House regarding President Trump's announcement of acting cabinet and cabinet-level positions (). This switch stems from President Trump's ability to switch whoever he deems fit into the acting Administrator role until the Senate of the United States can officially confirm his actual choice of Administrator, however the why behind the switch of acting Administrator is unknown as of now.
At McDonnell Douglas Aerospace, Petro advanced from mechanical engineer and payload manager to multiple management positions including program manager for executing a classified, multimillion-dollar U.S. Department of Defense program, to senior manager for Communications and Data Systems Division. ()
Isaacman and three crewmates from various walks of life spent three days in 2021 flying aboard a SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule for a mission dubbed that Isaacman self-funded. It marked the first spaceflight crewed entirely by civilians — or otherwise nongovernment astronauts — ever to venture to Earth’s orbit.
Isaacman has since expanded his partnership with SpaceX to include a development program called Polaris. The first of three missions planned under that effort — — took flight in September. The mission made history by sending Isaacman and three crewmates, including two SpaceX engineers, on the first-ever commercial spacewalk." ()
The following three infographics, found in the NASA FY25 Budget Request Briefing Book help illustrate the link between the Moon and Mars, explaining the importance of going to both, the crossover of technology needed for both, and the timelines involved in each (as the timelines differ massively, due to funding, development, & mostly the Mars Orbital Window, among other aspects. (These timelines are often prone to shifting, as seen in previous years, such as .)
This last infographic, as seen above, showcases the commercial partnerships within the specific mission set that NASA has planned (at the time of publishing on April 15, 2024.) As this relates to LUNR, can be seen on the bottom of FY2025, with being labeled "TO CP-11****" also in FY25 and being labeled "TO CP-22****" in FY27, with the stars at the end of each denoting the following:
Elon Musk, the current CEO & CTO of Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX), is now officially apart of our national government, being both seemingly President Trump's right hand man/personal advisor and the head of the , a new department signed into law by executive order on President Trump's first day of office yesterday (See ). The role of DOGE within the United States of America is to implement the President’s DOGE Agenda, by modernizing Federal technology and software to maximize governmental efficiency and productivity.
This places Musk in a peculiar spot, given his private company, SpaceX, a direct leg up as it is currently involved in many space activities via their popular and well-tested/many-flown reusable and land-able rockets, which are currently subject to use by Intuitive Machines for IM-2 and NASA for many missions, as well as their newer Rockets currently undergoing testing, (among other rockets and spacecraft.
The deregulation of AI and immediate investment of $100 Billion into AI with a future goal of $500 Billion ()
The executive order of the revocation of the EV vehicle mandates that are seen across the country ().
For LUNR, I believe that there is great growth potential. LUNR is more than just their landers (which is what they're most well known for, are top-of-the-line, and have from the first iteration, Odysseus); They're a combination of , with landers being just 1 of the 15.
Even with behemoths such as Musk's SpaceX (due to his closeness to the president) or Rocket lab seemingly at the forefront of the Mars route, both provide a very unique set of products geared more towards launch vehicles while LUNR provides more of a surface approach, among other offerings, something that neither have done successfully yet (although SpaceX is actively testing Starship, a surface lander, which ). LUNR, to this day, still remains the only commercial entity in the world that can claim the title of landing on the Moon, just 1 of 5 entities to do so in existence (with the other 4 being government space programs from various countries.) In addition to this, LUNR is actively conducting exploration and research on behalf of NASA on the Moon via their products delivered to the moon on their missions, or the (i.e. their Micro-Nova Hopper, Drill, Mass spectrometer, and other developed & attached equipment to the Athena lander.)
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