🌑The $LUNR Initiative

Originally published: 12/22/2024; Last revised: 12/24/2024.

Disclaimer

This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. I am not a licensed financial advisor, and the opinions and information presented here are based on my personal knowledge and research at the time of writing. While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy, some information may be incorrect or subject to change. Readers should independently verify all data and consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Preface

Welcome! I’m about to throw a wealth of information and figures your way regarding one of our favorite space stocks, $LUNR, a.k.a. Intuitive Machines (I’ll refer to them by the ticker throughout this post as to ease some length). I’ll try to divide this post into sections to make it “easily” digestible (you’ll be able to skip around, should you wish.) I’ve spent, over the last 4 days or so, probably around 12-18 hours researching and cross-referencing through various different sources, such as NASA’s website, Intuitive Machine’s website and filings, financial info & figures gathered from Trading View, Yahoo News verified publications, and even the 4 episode podcast created and published on all major streaming platforms directly by Intuitive Machines, among other more minor sources. All notes taken on the subject were hand-written for the sake of my own understanding and to present genuine authenticity as this was a “No GPT” project of mine (except to help me understand some high-level scientific topics that is just, quite frankly, outside the realm of my own understanding as I am not a scientist holding several degrees related to astrophysics or engineering as well as creation of visuals, where I manually plugged in the data found through official sources and verified visuals for accuracy.) Some of this info will be “copy-paste esque” (similar wording available on their website but more or less information on here due to cross-referencing other sources or absurdly long PDF’s on their website with too many details to list) due to the sheer amount OR lack of information available, with the prime section this is prevalent in being the product offerings, but still no GPT usage. If you have any questions or this work needs to be corrected due to incorrect information (which I’m highly confident that all should be correct), please feel free to leave a comment and I’ll be sure to revise or address what I can from my own understanding. All information is dated as of 20 Dec, 2024 or prior, including figures. With this being said, let's get right into it.

I - Background and Leadership

I.1 - Company Background

LUNR was founded in 2013 with an idea written on a napkin by 3 individuals (identified below.) LUNR specializes in Lunar missions and the development of technology to support sustained robotic and human exploration to the Moon, Mars, and beyond. LUNR was a private company previously but became public in February of 2023. Today, LUNR primarily deals with Lunar Payload Delivery Services (LPDS), providing almost all hardware, software, and manpower needed in a bespoke manner. This includes, but is not limited to, communication, navigation, and operation of equipment. After being selected by NASA as one of their top leading space exploration companies years ago, LUNR developed and became the first U.S. based organization to land on the Lunar surface since the Apollo mission ended in 1972. To date, only 5 entities have been to the lunar surface, with the other 4 being individual country’s space programs (USSR, United States, India, and China) and exclusively hold the record for being the first, and only, commercial entity to visit the lunar surface. This has made LUNR a pioneer in the space sector as they lead the current drive towards building what is referred to by many as “The Lunar Economy”. LUNR’s missions are also supported by partnerships with industry leaders, including SpaceX, which provides Falcon 9 rockets for missions such as IM-2.

I.2 - Stephen Altemus

Stephen Altemus, current CEO, President, and co-founder, has a background working in the space sector, previously taking on the role of Deputy Director of NASA’s Johnson Space Center, located in Houston, where LUNR currently operates out of. Prior to taking on this role, he served as Johnson Space Center’s director of engineering for 6 years, spearheading NASA human spaceflight programs in the R&D sector. Altemus first entered the space sector in 1989, working at the Kennedy Space Center in Florida, on a team that handled shuttle operations, launch, and landings of spacecraft. His notable educational achievements include a Bachelors in Aeronautical Engineering and a Masters in Engineering management.

I.3 - Dr. Kamal Ghaffarian

The second co-founder alongside Altemus is Dr. Kamal Ghaffarian, a current sitting board member and entrepreneur with 35 years of experience building successful companies, working with government contracts, and driving technological innovation through IT, engineering, and science applications. Prior to his entrepreneurship, he worked for Lockheed Martin and Ford Aerospace in both technical and management positions. Dr. Ghaffarian holds 5 degrees, 2 Bachelors, 1 Masters, and 2 PHDs, with all relating to technology. Along with LUNR, he maintains high-ranking positions at IBX, Axiom Space, X-Energy, and Quantum Space.

I.4 - Dr. Timothy P. Crain

The last co-founder is Dr. Timothy P. Crain. Dr. Crain currently serves as the Vice President of LUNR and Chief Growth Officer. In his earlier years, he served as the lead of several divisions, during his 13 year tenure, heavily involved in navigation, communication, and operations related to Project Morpheus and the Orion spacecraft, to name two.

I.5 - Employee Background

Other notable backgrounds of higher-ranking officials in LUNR include scientists, astronauts (who have been to Space!), legal officials with a wealth of experience, and more. The team currently boasts 250+ years of combined executive aerospace experience and employs more than 250 personnel.

II - Major Product Offerings - Where the innovation happens

II.1 - Lunar Access

II.1a - Rideshare

A bespoke service offered by LUNR to facilitate lunar transfer delivery services with the current limit of up to 1000 kilograms of payload capacity. In layman’s terms, this will enable customers (such as NASA or commercial companies) to transport payloads, such as satellites or other cargo, beyond low Earth orbit to places such as geostationary transfer orbit, the lunar surface, and other points.

II.1b - Micro Nova

An autonomous drone manufactured by LUNR to provide mobility for research and exploration in previously unreachable areas. Can accommodate up to 1 kg payloads and has a range of 25 km from the landing site. Will be utilized in the IM-2 mission.

II.1c - Landers

Direct payload delivery systems designed for delivering equipment and potentially personnel to the Lunar surface. Current weight limits of the Nova-C lander, to be used in the upcoming IM-2 mission, is 100kg. Successors to the Nova-C lander, as spoken by Dr. Crain in interviews with NASA suggest the Nova-D, with a payload capacity of 500kg, and the Nova-M, with a whopping 5,000kg capacity, however both remain speculative and unconfirmed with no funding. Among the two, the Nova-D is more likely to see life sooner, rather than later, as LUNR proposed a mission to deliver NASA’s VIPER rover to the lunar surface no earlier than late 2027.

II.2 - Lunar Data Network

II.2a - Lunar Tracking, Telemetry, and Command Network (LTN)

A network currently comprising nine ground stations in seven locations worldwide to help support uplink and downlink for missions in space and on the Moon to provide telemetry, tracking, and command, and helping facilitate real-time data transmission.

II.2b - Lunar Relay

A constellation of Khon satellites privately owned and operated by LUNR to support continuous data relay in the cislunar and lunar surface spaces. Developed under contract with York Space Systems.

II.2c - Mission Control

The nerve center of Lunar mission operations. This center hosts mission controllers with access to mission-critical software and data. Available commercially to other companies via contract. Mission control’s main brain, Nova Core, a mission control software, is developed and sustained by LUNR with full contingency plans in partnership with Fugro, based in Western Australia.

II.3 - Space Systems & Services

II.3a - Lunar Mobility

In collaboration with Northrup Grumman and Lunar Outpost, the collaboration is designing a new class of Lunar Terrain Vehicle to transport Astronauts around the Lunar surface. Lunar Outpost currently has their MAPP rover onboard the IM-2 mission to support the scientific expedition.

II.3b - Habitation

LUNR is “prepared” to provide mission critical subsystems to support long-duration habitation on the lunar surface.

II.3c - Fission Surface Power

The U.S. DOE awarded IX, a joint venture between Intuitive Machines and X-Energy (which Dr. Crain, one of LUNR’s co-founders, is heavily involved in and holds a high position in), a one year contract to study a fission surface power solution which aims to provide at least 40 kWe power flight system to the moon within the decade.

II.3d - Re-Entry Vehicles

Developed in coordination with Johnson Space Center, LUNR’s Universal Return Vehicles (URV) potentially will be utilized for International Space Station priority cargo return, however this has yet to be confirmed. LUNR was also selected to look at aerocapture using URV-derived capabilities. Aerocapture is a technique used on approach to a planet (or moon) to help slow down the craft upon re-entry, which helps save fuel and makes missions more cost-efficient.

II.3e - Propulsion

LUNR has developed a new Liquid Oxygen Liquid Methane engine used for in-space propulsion. They offer safety in handling and provide unmatched performance, enabling vehicles to fly at more direct trajectories to the lunar surface. This propulsion system was first seen in use by the Odysseus lander in the IM-1 mission.

II.3f - Software Development

Bespoke software development for use with equipment and systems involved with current offerings and partner entities.

II.3g - Optical Navigation

An in-house developed precision landing hazard avoidance system (PLHA) with Terrain Relative Navigation (TRN) using optical and laser measurements to support precise and safe landings on celestial bodies.

II.3h - Autonomous Landing

Using experience from NASA’s Morpheus project as well as in-house developed Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance technology, LUNR remains at the forefront of celestial autonomous landings. LUNR helped validate the natural feature tracking system for the OSIRIS-REx mission which enabled a precision autonomous landing on the asteroid Bennu. The OSIRIS-REx mission collected and returned samples from Bennu after launching in 2016, performed collection in October of 2020, and returned in September of 2023.

II.3i - Surviving the Night

LUNR has continued to develop heat and power sources to help keep systems and equipment operational during the long lunar nights, which last about 14 standard days. Heat and Power remain primary concerns due to lack of resources (and quite frankly manpower) on the lunar surface during lunar nights.

III - Prior and Upcoming Notable Events - (Largely focused on IM-2)

III.1 - IM-1 Mission

Conducted in February 2024 with a 7 day journey to the moon, this mission was led by LUNR with the main goal of making positive and successful touchdown on the Lunar Surface to explore current feasibility with existing and specially developed technologies, such as LUNR’s newly developed propulsion system. This mission had some slight problems, as the Nova-C lander (Codename: Odysseus) tipped to an unplanned 30 degree angle on the surface, however this did not affect functionality of equipment and instruments, and the mission was still deemed a full success. This was the first time that U.S. spacecraft returned to the Moon since 1972.

III.2 - IM-2 Mission

Currently scheduled for Q1 2025 and on track for success. This mission is led by LUNR under NASA’s CLPS project. This launch will be performed in conjunction with SpaceX as they will utilize the Falcon 9 Block 5 rocket, a partially reusable, human-rated, two-stage-to-orbit, medium-lift launch vehicle. This mission aims to land near the Lunar South Pole with the goal of uncovering the presence and quantity of lunar water utilizing the Nova-C lander (codename: Athena) to deploy and use a speciality drill and mass spectrometer. LUNR’s Micro Nova hopper will also be in use to reach and overcome difficult terrain, mostly deep craters near the landing site that is located in a permanently shadowed region of the Marston Crater. Nokia will also be involved in this mission in conjunction with LUNR to establish a high speed 4G-LTE cellular network on the Lunar surface for upgraded wireless communication between equipment used. A Khon satellite will also be deployed to support the NSN. LUNR has also learned from previous mistakes, upgrading hardware and software for a better landing system in order to gain better precision and control during descent and touchdown on the Lunar surface in order to avoid a potential catastrophe, as almost seen in the IM-1 mission.

III.3 - IM-3 Mission

Slated no earlier than October 2025. The aim of this mission, as known so far, is to deploy more relay satellites (Khon) under the NSN and explore more scientific research and engineering technology to be used in conjunction with the Artemis program.

III.4 - IM-4 Mission

Slated no earlier than 2027. The aim of this mission, as known so far, is to deploy more relay satellites (Khon) under the NSN. This mission is expected to have an expanded payload capacity, which indicates bigger services potentially involved. It also aims to explore more scientific research and engineering technology to be used in conjunction with the Artemis program.

III.5 - IMC-1 Mission

A completely commercial mission; Not much known, announced, or funded yet. Remains highly speculative but appears to be in the pipeline on the low-level in line with current offerings and the commercial status of the company as it reaches towards expanding its commercial clientele.

IV - NASA Connection

IV.1 - NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) Project

First announced in 2018, The CLPS Project aims to provide the ability for American companies to deliver science and technology to the Lunar Surface to perform science experiments, test technologies, and demonstrate capabilities to help propel forward the Artemis Campaign and American space exploration, in both the government and private space sectors. This includes everything from payload integration and operations, to launching from Earth and landing on the surface of the Moon. CLPS contracts are indefinite delivery, indefinite quantity contracts, and propose a maximum cumulative contract value of $2.6 Billion through 2028 to companies awarded work orders. While the cumulative contract value is worth $2.6 Billion, the initial contract given to LUNR from that amount totaled $77 million, with recent modifications earlier this year bringing that total to $118 million. (Note that this figure could change, bringing in a much larger upside).

IV.2 - NASA’s Near Space Network (NSN)

A critical component to NASA’s Space Communications and Navigation Program. Currently, this program spams between February 2025 to September 2029, with a possible 5 year extension (unknown conditions for extension). The NSN provides missions with communication services as a full end-to-end single network up to 2 million kilometers away in near-real time, ensuring both mission crew and ground control have access to telemetry & tracking, command & control, data up/downlink for science and engineering purposes, redundancy & reliability, and stability. Additionally, it provides important planning processes to its collaborators, such as mission design, mission planning, launch, operations, service agreements, and post-mission support services. THE NSN is composed of a series of space relays (i.e. Khon satellites that have yet to be put in orbit and become operational) in geosynchronous orbit along with a combination of both government and commercial dishes & antennas all over the Earth. This network will support data exchanges of several terabytes (1000GB) per day to support space and lunar operations. Currently, the NSN is active and supporting a variety of missions, such as the International Space Station, but also low-earth orbit, geostationary orbit, and cislunar spacecraft, with an eventual expansion to support the lunar surface. On September 17, 2024, NASA announced its first initial task order, with LUNR being the exclusive recipient at the time. On Dec 20, 2024, NASA announced new task orders, in line with the NSN cumulative budget and expanding onto the previous September award, providing LUNR with 2 additional task orders, as well as naming various other companies and adding them into the works, such as Viasat with 2 task orders, Kongsberg Satellite Services with 2 task orders, and SSC Space U.S. with 1 task order. LUNR’s task order differs from the other companies due to the others mostly being involved with the NSN on the ground while LUNR is involved much more with the Space component, placing them in a critical spot for capitalization in the space. The total cumulative budget follows a similar style to the CLPS, with the budget set for a time period and to be spread between companies as needed going forward, but this time with a total value of $4.82 Billion. LUNR is still actively competing for task orders and will continue to do so under this program as long as NASA remains taking bids.

IV.3 - NASA’s Artemis Campaign

Ultimately, the CLPS and NSN are critical components to the Artemis campaign. The Artemis campaign is a commercial, government, and international campaign collaboration headed by NASA to establish a long-term presence on the moon by humans in preparation for Mars and beyond, eventually. Odysseus with the IM-1 mission was the first real critical stage in the Artemis campaign, showcasing our current technological and engineering grasp with the aim of returning life to the moon. The Artemis campaign is divided into 4 major missions currently: Artemis 1, which was performed in November of 2022, and culminated in a successful unmanned test flight of the Space Launch System Rocket & Orion Spacecraft. Artemis 2, the second campaign, will be the first crewed Lunar flyby test flight primarily to test life support systems, navigation, and comms. This is expected to have a 10 day duration and launch no earlier than April 2026. Artemis 3, the third Artemis campaign, is set to be the first manned Lunar Surface mission since the Apollo campaign, and plans to set down in the Lunar South Pole, where LUNR is conducting operations with its missions in preparation for. Artemis 4, the final Artemis mission, aims to deliver the “Lunar Gateway”, an orbital space station to help support long term activities in orbit of the moon and on the surface, as well as provide habitation. The Lunar Gateway plans to be in orbit and operation for a time period of at least 10 years and will gradually add modules as needed. LUNR is largely involved in this process, providing the main Lunar relay (Khon satellites) that will be used for human landing systems, potentially lunar terrain vehicles, commercial lunar payload service flights, and much more. Being the sole provider for lunar landing craft and premier provider for communication and navigation equipment in space, they are at the forefront of innovation.

V - Contracts

V.1 - IM-1 Mission

Awarded $118M to develop the Odysseus Lunar Lander, to include operations.

V.2 - IM-2 Mission

No figures publicly available currently (to the best of my knowledge).

V.3 - IM-3 Mission

No figures publicly available currently (to the best of my knowledge).

V.4 - IM-4

Announced in September 2024, LUNR was awarded a $116.9M contract by NASA.

V.5 - Sept and Dec. 2024 Task Orders as part of the NSN/CLPS

While the cumulative value of the contract is set at $4.82 billion, no figures have yet to be released regarding the specifics of how the money will trickle down between all 4 commercial companies currently involved. As far as LUNR is concerned, they are tasked with providing cislunar communication direct-to-earth, as well as extended cislunar-environment comms operations, and eventually will provide relay services to aid in communication and navigations services to help alleviate the current Deep Space Network. These goals also fall in line with the previously awarded September 2024 task orders.

VI - Finances and Economics: (as of 20 Dec, 2024; Backlog excludes Dec Task Orders)

VI.1 - Quick Figures

• ~2B Market cap

• + 49% 3M

• + 416% YTD

• Analysts target $20 stock price within 1 year as of Q3 2024

VI.2 - All things Stock related

• 90.38M Shares total (TradingView)

• Free float 81.47M shares (90.15%)

• Closely held 8.91M shares (9.85%)

• Recently diluted 9.52M shares into the float, which was announced to be finished on Dec. 5. The capital raised from dilution was used or is to be used for “general corporate purposes, including operations, research and development, and potential mergers or acquisitions”. This positions LUNR well for future ambitious plans.

• Latest earnings report Q3 2024:

• -.82 EPS; Largely expected due to increased operating expenses, such as research and development costs.

• Backlog of contracts as announced in Q3 earnings report stands at $316.2M, a record for the company with the previous Q3 earnings report in 2023 standing at $135.2M. This doesn’t take into account the newest Dec task order awards.

• $89.5M in cash reported in Q3 2024, with the previous Q3 earnings report in 2023 reported $40.7M.

• Annual revenue in 2023 measured $80M. Expected annual revenue for 2024 to grow to $215-$235M, and largely increase from 2024 to 2026, with an estimate of almost $500M.

• Net income for 2023 was reported at $62.8M, compared to a loss of $6.4M in 2022. This significant growth in net income shows LUNR’s ability to effectively leverage its contracts and operational advancements, signaling a positive shift in profitability and financial stability.

• With a growing contract backlog of $316.2M and projections for $500M in annual revenue by 2026, bringing them into a profitability zone, LUNR is well-positioned.

VI.3 - Lunar Economy

Currently estimated to be valued at $570B and expected to grow to $1.8T by 2035, with potential for a higher upside due to the ever growing landscape of space development and exploration. This $1.8T figure reflects an optimistic outlook, though its realization depends on the successful execution of missions and the management of potential challenges, such as mission delays or unforeseen variables.

VII - Notable Visuals

VIII - Closing Remarks

VIII.1 - Conflicting info

There is much conflicting info available due to the ever changing landscape of contracts, both commercial and private, as well as the technology used and developed by LUNR. Contracts are updated all the time, especially with the nature of having a Cumulative-budgeted contract (to name one example) with figures only being available through releases put out around earnings time. I’ve done my absolute best to fact check everything in this document, but like you, I am human. I can make mistakes. If you notice something is off and can provide a legitimate source, I’ll be more than happy to update this! If you think something else should be added as well, I am open to adding more, sources provided.

VIII.2 - Potential delays and funding problems

Delays of planned missions, which could happen for various reasons, as well as potential funding problems, stemming from events like government shutdowns, could temporarily hurt or cripple the company in a myriad of ways. With their current dependence on long-term cumulative government contracts stemming from NASA, this invites vulnerability should something go the wrong way, such as a shift in government priority and program cuts. Regulatory challenges also pose a risk to time-sensitive mission dates.

VIII.3 - Risk

Exploring space and conducting activities never before done autonomously and off world inherently poses many challenges as unknown variables continue to present themselves. All it takes is 1 wrong move by LUNR, whether human, technological, or natural error, for things to go sideways and cause a catastrophic reaction that could potentially end with an unsuccessful mission, sending the stock and the company into bankruptcy, as they’d more than likely lose funding and contracts. While this is a risk all space sector companies take on, with LUNR being at the forefront of lunar surface and orbit operations, they inherently take on more. High R&D costs also add to the mix, but these costs are a great foundation for long-term growth as they continue to establish a growing dominance in the space sector. Once commercialization of their technologies and products become a standard of theirs, profitability should vastly outweigh R&D costs.

VIII.4 - Competitors

While LUNR seems to be at the forefront of lunar surface activities, other competitors in the lunar mission and CLPS atmosphere, such as Astrobotic or Blue Origin have the possibility of overtaking LUNR, although this is unlikely due to its technical innovation, partnerships, and professional expertise. Rocket Lab also exists within the same atmosphere of the industry, although their product offerings differ immensely. Both seem to be very critical to the future of the US based space industry, in their own respective ways.

VIII.5 - Why am I doing this?

I’ve always had an affinity for space; It’s always intrigued me with the possibilities-are we the only ones out here? What are the limits of us as humans in terms of willpower, collaboration, and technology? What is the nature of the universe? The list could go on and on. I, for one, have always stayed as educated as one can be without holding any sort of specialized science degree relating to astrophysics or other space-related topics. I remember, back in the mid-2000’s when I was very young, watching rockets launch on the television in my living room and the genuine awe that I felt; A true feat of human engineering. With this being said, I hope to also educate others on our growing economy, as it relates to our (at least my) favorite stock, as we start exploring the final frontier.

VIII.5 - More information

There’s absolutely a wealth of additional information I could include, such as the impact of the current and incoming administration’s approaches to the space sector and exploration. This includes how budget allocations, policy changes, and international collaborations could shape LUNR's trajectory. I could also dive deeper into the influence of other companies on LUNR’s success, such as SpaceX—a U.S.-based global leader in rocket systems that facilitates spacecraft launches beyond our atmosphere. Additionally, there’s much to explore about the numerous collaborations driving LUNR’s technological advancements and potential future applications. While a competitor analysis could provide valuable context, our focus here remains on LUNR and its potential. Ultimately, there’s far more information that could be compounded into this analysis, but limitations in time and space prevent me from expanding further without turning this document into something ten times its current length.

VIII.6 - My OPINION on the future of this company

I believe in this company for the long term. Intuitive Machines is doing some absolutely incredible things to advance, not only American, but human scientific progress through quite literally starting the journey to reach for the stars. Personally, I plan on holding this for the long, stacking shares as I go and making trades only on the ups to buy in at lower prices for greater leverage of value. While I am currently only a small fry with a couple dozen shares, I believe that this will be one of the stocks that helps me personally propel my financial goals further, as some might say, into the stars!

With all this being said, I’ll leave this off with one last thing. Some say to shoot for the stars, but I say shoot for the moon.

• By Ben, @Intenxe on AfterHour and Discord

Updates can be found on the continued pages and will be posted in near-real time (I'll try my absolute best to get the pertinent info out in a timely manner.)