Feb 6, 2025 - Update 4 - Warrants, IM-2 Update, Future Potential VIPER NASA Contracts, IM-3 and More
Originally published 2/07/2025. Last revised 2/07/2025.
Preface
Hey Family, I apologize for the delay in the reporting of information; Life has gotten a bit hectic on my side the last couple of weeks and I haven't been nearly as active as I would have liked to, both on here and AfterHour. Things are starting to ease up a bit so I should be able to get back to my regular reporting (especially in this crucial time as IM-2 nears launch!) as well as the new $RKLB DD that I've been slowly working on, as promised in some of my last AfterHour posts. With this all being said, lets get right into it!
(All stock quotes seen in this update are dated at close on February 6, 2025, the time of writing. I held off on releasing this until the 7th as this was completed very late on the night of the 6th.)
Background
A lot has been brewing since the last update such as:
Warrants requirement completion & redemptions
IM-2 mission updates
Newly awarded NASA contracts
Potential for future NASA contracts
IM-3 mission updates and new spacecraft
These are all significant events that have already or have the potential to greatly affect the company, whether directly or through the stock price that we all so feverishly follow as investors. While we've entered into a dip, I personally consider this a bullish dip and nothing to fret over and in the following, I'll explain why.
Warrants
As of February 4, 2025, LUNR officially released a press release announcing and detailing the warrant redemption available via $LUNRW. The requirements to exercise these warrants were officially met and were as followed:
Maintain at least an $18 price per share of $LUNR for at least 20 non-consecutively trading days out of a total consecutive 30 day trading period.
These warrants, which amount to a total of potentially 21.9 million shares, are set for redemption with an $11.50 stock price point if and/or when exercised and must be exercised by March 6, 2025, if chosen to do so. If unexercised by March 6, 2025, then unexercised warrants will expire at the price point of $0.01, making them essentially worthless.
At LUNR's current price, as of writing this and closing out the day at $19.31, there's potentially a maximum of 67.9% upside to the execution and conversion of warrants to normal shares (minus the initial $LUNRW purchase price). This means that every warrant converted has the potential profit of $7.81 (again, minus the initial $LUNRW purchase price).
This, in my own eyes, is seen as favorable with all actions being taken on the Warrants thus far, as LUNR is still a young company in the eyes of the Lunar Economy and consistently is treading the line with its financials (albeit not in a bad way as the majority of the negative comes from R&D and other necessary costs), with its main point during earnings being the huge backlog of contracts that it has set for the next few years carrying the valuation of the company. While the float will potentially increase by 21.9 million shares, this should, in theory, fend off any sort of unfavorable further dilution to the stock while also helping increase the cash on hand, depending what LUNR ultimately decides to do with the money. This potentially primes their earnings (currently projected for March) further, on top of the large increase that we'll see in the NSN addition to their backlog, being worth a portion of up to several billion dollars over the next few years that'll flow in incrementally, more than the current valuation of the company itself at current levels.
IM-2
The Athena Lander has officially been delivered and successfully arrived in Cape Canaveral on January 28, 2025, per a LUNR press release.
Within the press release, put forth by LUNR, CEO Steve Altemus stated:
“Each lunar mission builds on the last, and Athena’s arrival in Florida demonstrates our dedication to delivering on the Company’s vision to providing a reliable cadence of lunar delivery services. This commitment to flying missions reinforces our broader efforts of developing a heavy cargo lander, establishing a lunar data relay satellite constellation, and providing sustainable infrastructure services at the Moon to enable further exploration of the solar system.”
This quote helps clearly define the potential vision that LUNR has within the space sector, not only focusing on landing on the moon, but also eventually further out, developing more support for space exploration as a whole, and lies in-line with the current administrations eyes on the planet Mars.
The IM-2, in partnership with NASA and SpaceX, is eyeing a 4 day launch window that'll open no earlier than February 26 at Launch Complex 39A at Kennedy Space Center, giving the launch team plenty of time should unfavorable conditions arise, such as inclement weather. The time estimated to reach the moon aboard the SpaceX Falcon 9 Block 5 rocket is approximately 7 days. The mission is expected to last roughly 1 lunar day, about 2 Earth weeks, due to current operational power requirements and the reliability on solar energy. During this time period, NASA and LUNR will work together to conduct scientific research utilizing a plethora of equipment developed by LUNR and other various companies, with some of the most notable items being:
Nokia's 4G-LTE Cellular Network
NASA's PRIME-1 Drilling equipment
LUNR's Micro-Nova Hopper
For a complete view of the lander, LUNR has released via their YouTube channel a video showcasing the Athena Lander in all its cinematic glory.
LUNR and NASA announced a joint teleconfrence to discuss the science and technology of the IM-2 mission as it relates to the CLPS and the Artemis Program. This teleconference will happen tomorrow, February 7 at 1PM EST (1800 UTC) and will be hosted on YouTube (audio only) at the following link:
Lastly in regards to IM-2, NASA also currently has open and free registration to join the IM-2 mission as a virtual guest, receiving real-time updates on everything surrounding the IM-2 mission. I HIGHLY recommend all investors in LUNR head to the link (below) and sign up for this as this is a crucial event within the company that'll greatly dictate the stock price and direction of the company as a whole going forward.
New NASA Contracts
On January 23, 2025, NASA announced new contracts in support of the Artemis Program to help study ways to support life and work on the Lunar surface to 9 different companies, LUNR included. These contracts are outlined in NASA's Moon to Mars Architecture and are seen, in NASA's eyes, as essential to supporting the United States' space interests in exploration and habitability.
“These contract awards are the catalyst for developing critical capabilities for the Artemis missions and the everyday needs of astronauts for long-term exploration on the lunar surface,” said Nujoud Merancy, deputy associate administrator, Strategy and Architecture Office at NASA Headquarters in Washington. “The strong response to our request for proposals is a testament to the interest in human exploration and the growing deep-space economy. This is an important step to a sustainable return to the Moon that, along with our commercial partners, will lead to innovation and expand our knowledge for future lunar missions, looking toward Mars.”
These contracts have a combined value of $24 million and were awarded as followed:
Blue Origin, Merritt Island, Florida – logistical carriers; logistics handling and offloading; logistics transfer; staging, storage, and tracking; surface cargo and mobility; and integrated strategies
Intuitive Machines, Houston, Texas – logistics handling and offloading; and surface cargo and mobility
Leidos, Reston, Virginia – logistical carriers; logistics transfer; staging, storage, and tracking; trash management; and integrated strategies
Lockheed Martin, Littleton, Colorado – logistical carriers; logistics transfer; and surface cargo and mobility
MDA Space, Houston – surface cargo and mobility
Moonprint, Dover, Delaware – logistical carriers
Pratt Miller Defense, New Hudson, Michigan – surface cargo and mobility
Sierra Space, Louisville, Colorado – logistical carriers; logistics transfer; staging, storage, and tracking; trash management; and integrated strategies
Special Aerospace Services, Huntsville, Alabama – logistical carriers; logistics handling and offloading; logistics transfer; staging, storage, and tracking; trash management; surface cargo and mobility; and integrated strategies
This contract awarded to LUNR is apart of a new series of contracts, completely separate from the NSN or CLSP and is defined as NASA's Next Space Technologies for Exploration Partnerships (NextSTEP) Appendix R, aimed at advancing deep-space logistics. As it relates to LUNR, they will develop logistics handling and offloading as well as surface cargo and mobility capabilities, suggesting the possibility of the development of further landers or even the potential of new hoppers or rovers, which LUNR has already dabbled in with their Micro-Nova Hopper or the unveiling of the Moon Racer LTV (Lunar Terrain Vehicle) on November 15, 2024. Although this vehicle is meant for crewed operations, it is not outside the realm of possibility and the scope of LUNR's technology to create an autonomous rover that could be able to handle this task.
While the total pool is only $24 million, which is being divided between 9 different companies (with no breakdown put forth on how this will be divided, leaving us with an unknown figure as it relates to LUNR or any of the other companies), it is a further step in the door for LUNR for more contracts and the continued partnership that NASA and LUNR have developed together over the last couple of years.
New Potential NASA Contracts via VIPER
NASA has recently announced that they are collecting proposals for the VIPER mission on the lunar surface, a mission that was flat out canceled in July 2024 but has since been reinstated. In short, VIPER is the "Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover" which will further the Artemis campaign by demonstrating the ability to search for ice on the lunar surface and collect more scientific data, something that directly lines up with LUNR's current offerings and services as seen by the main idea as held in the IM-2 mission and their equipment, especially given the fact that LUNR and NASA have partnered before on similar projects and missions.
“Moving forward with a VIPER partnership offers NASA a unique opportunity to engage with the private sector,” said Nicky Fox, associate administrator in the Science Mission Directorate at NASA Headquarters in Washington. “Such a partnership provides the opportunity for NASA to collect VIPER science that could tell us more about water on the Moon, while advancing commercial lunar landing capabilities and resource prospecting possibilities.”
Any partnership would work under a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement. This type of partnership allows both NASA and an industry partner to contribute services, technology, and hardware to the collaboration.
As part of an agreement, NASA would contribute the existing VIPER rover as-is. Potential partners would need to arrange for the integration and successful landing of the rover on the Moon, conduct a science/exploration campaign, and disseminate VIPER-generated science data. The partner may not disassemble the rover and use its instruments or parts separately from the VIPER mission. NASA’s selection approach will favor proposals that enable data from the mission’s science instruments to be shared openly with anyone who wishes to use it.
“Being selected for the VIPER partnership would benefit any company interested in advancing their lunar landing and surface operations capabilities,” said Joel Kearns, deputy associate administrator for exploration in the Science Mission Directorate. “This solicitation seeks proposals that clearly describe what is needed to successfully land and operate the rover, and invites industry to propose their own complementary science goals and approaches. NASA is looking forward to partnering with U.S. industry to meet the challenges of performing volatiles science in the lunar environment.”
Responses for VIPER are due Monday, March 3rd, with the decision for the company that NASA chooses following within the next couple of months.
IM-3 and New Spacecraft
Justin Kugler, the senior development of business development at LUNR, presented a presentation at last weeks SPACECOM panel titled "Foundational Lunar Exploration" in partnership with NASA and their Acting Director of Kennedy Space Center, Kelvin Manning (who directly moderated the panel).
Per his presentation, IM-3 is slotted for takeoff in Q4 2025, with other missions to follow throughout the next few years.
Also per his presentation, LUNR is in the middle of development for 2 new spacecraft, called "Nebula" and "Zephyr".
Nebula, the spacecraft seen in the image on the bottom left, seems to be an orbital transfer vehicle.
Zephyr on the other hand, seen in the image on the bottom right, seems to be a more streamlined looking transfer vehicle of some sorts.
As of now, we have little to no information regarding either of these other than this slide regarding these space craft.
In addition to this slide, LUNR showed off more of their upcoming IM-2 mission:
These photos help illustrate the prime space that LUNR is positioning themselves into, setting themselves up for success with further potential NASA contracts and a great long-term outlook.
That's all for today! I'll be back soon with some more updates and fresh DD!
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